China tipped to hit peak steel in 2017
Source: www.chinamining.org Citation: www.afr.com Date: November 27, 2014
China`s steel consumption will peak in just three years, according to one of the country`s top industry officials, more than a decade before the ambitious forecasts of Australia`s big iron ore big miners.
Li Xingchuang, president of the government-linked China Metallurgical Industry Planning Association, said steel consumption would peak at 740 million tonnes in 2017.
The forecast comes as China`s central bank loosened monetary policy for the second time in a week, from selling repurchase agreements for the first time since July.
This is well below the 1 billion tonne forecasts of Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Fortescue Metals Group, who all broadly believe Chinese steel consumption will not peak until beyond 2030.
"I really don`t understand how the big mining companies made that forecast," said Mr Li at a Platts steel conference in Shanghai.
"Consumption is really near the peak."
Mr Li said it was "not realistic" to think that Chinese consumption would ever get beyond 1 billion tonnes.
"I really think that our forecasts give the real picture," said Mr Li.
Mr Li, who has been involved in the formulation of China¡¯s five year plans, said steel consumption would increase by 3 per cent this year to 710 million tonnes.
In 2015 he predicts consumption growth will slow to 1.4 per cent, before peaking at around 740 million tonnes in 2017.
"The mining companies were too optimistic," said Mr Li.
"They just looked what had happened in other countries and believed China would be the same, but it`s a very different market."
Mr Li said China`s overall production would peak around 850 million tonnes in the coming years if exports could be maintained.
He believes overall production will grow at 1.7 per cent next year to around 834 million tonnes
About CHINA MINING
Since first held in 1999, the scope and influence of CHINA MINING has grown rapidly year by year. As a global mining summit forum and exhibition, CHINA MINING Congress and Expo has become one of the world’s top mining events, and one of the world’s largest mining exploration, development and trading platforms, covering all aspects of the whole mining industry chain, including geological survey, exploration and development, mining rights trading, mining investment and financing, smelting and processing, mining techniques and equipment, mining services, etc. playing an active promotion role in creating exchange opportunities and enhancing mutual cooperation between domestic and foreign mining enterprises.
CHINA MINING Congress and Expo 2015 will be held at Meijiang Convention and Exhibition Center in Tianjin on November 20th-23rd, 2015. We invite you to join the event and to celebrate the 17th anniversary of CHINA MINING with us. For more information about CHINA MINING 2015, please visit: www.chinaminingtj.org.
