Experts believe that the background of weak growth will promote a stable development of the mining market
Ju Yitai, deputy director of the Chinese Metallurgical Geology Bureau made a speech on the top forum of CHINA MINING 2013 on the theme of Mining Development. He said that the mining industry had the capability of bearing the risk of investment and development and enduring the slow output benefits as expected. Therefore, the inverse cycle and the reversed transmission formed in the weak global economic growth will be conductive to promoting the long-term stability of the mining market.
Ju Yitai expressed that the momentum of current global economic growth is insufficient and presents a state of soft recovery and weak growth. As a result, the mining investment growth rate was dropping, the mineral products’ prices presents a high downside volatility. Although the world economy stays in a weak growth stage, the mining industry’s development is still one of key factors of economic development. The trend of the improvement of the mining market and the investment growth of the mining industry will continue. Therefore, we should keep confidence in the development prospects of the global economy of the mineral resources.
First of all, the unbalance and discordance of the supply and demand of mineral resources will exist for a long time. Especially in the emerging countries, the rigid constraints of resources for the economic and social development will not change. The industrialization level of the most of the countries was positively related to the consumption of mineral resources. Therefore, including China, the recoverable reserves of mineral resources are difficult to meet the demand of sustainable economic development. Moreover, the globalization of the allocation of resources will lead to the further demand for the resources, and in the next 10 to 20 years, the demand for mineral products will remain strong, but the super cycle of global mining is far from being finished..
Second, the industrial characteristics of the mineral resources development and the law of the industrial development determined that the mining market will remain relatively stable in a certain period of time. On the one hand, the inherent characteristics of the mining economy, coupled with the changes in the economic environment were not fully synchronized, which presented a lag which is easy to form a staggered development effect, namely an initiative inverse regulation run by the mining investment market players through making use of the conduction period. On the other hand, the weak growth gives rise to the decrease of commodity demand and prices correction, which consequentially makes the market passively adjusted. With these two circumstances’ alternation, de-stocking and the removing of the production capacity may dominate the global mining industry trends, and the exploration risk makes the application and promotion of new technology in full swing. The intensive management development such as the concentrated exploration and prospecting will be paid high attention to and got supported. The integration of mining and enterprise, size-investment and environmental development become possible, and the utilization of the super-large mineral resources will form a large-scale commercial ability in the future, which brought the result that the production cost will decrease relatively, industry profits will increase under intensive management and commodity prices will also rise with the adjustment of global commodity supply and demand. It is predicted that a new mining boom would be likely created after 2015. (Tian Xuelian / Chen Wei) (Translated by TLRHVC)
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