Research firm BMI Research reports that global gold production will rise in the coming years as a result of rising gold prices and well-established projects in key gold-producing countries.
The agency predicts that by 2026, gold output will increase from 105 million ounces in 2018 to 125 million ounces, an average annual increase of 2.3%, a slight slowdown from the average growth rate of 3.1% over the previous eight years. BMT expects short-term gold prices will continue to rise, the average price in 2018 is expected to be 1,300 US dollars / ounce.
Like many other metals, transactions initiated by Chinese companies will lead the gold production and price performance. BMI Research predicts that large companies from China will invest more in overseas gold mines because China's demand for gold will outpace its output growth rate. The agency expects China's gold output to stay at 16.5 million ounces in the coming years.
BMI estimates that Asia Pacific accounted for 44.7% of global gold M & A transactions in 2016. Fosun International, a conglomerate in China, started some big deals, including a $ 890 million takeover of a 10% stake in Russian gold producer Polyus Gold. In addition, Shandong Gold Group acquired a 50% stake in Veladero Mine in Argentina from Barrick Gold at a cost of 960 million U.S. dollars, promising to further exploration activities in the region.
In 2016, China National Gold Group acquired Jinfeng Gold Mine from Eldorado Gold for a total cost of 300 million U.S. dollars. That same year, Indonesian firm PT Amman Mineral International acquired Newmont Mining's Indonesian-based assets for 1.3 billion U.S. dollars, including Batu Hijau, Indonesia's second-largest copper-gold mine.
Australia is another important force in the global gold mine landscape. Gold production is expected to increase in the country, rising gold prices will improve the profitability of mining companies, while the depreciation of the Australian dollar will stimulate the expansion of mines and prompting top mines and junior companies have stepped up exploration activities.
BMI Research said Newmont Mining Corp.'s performance is a good example of Australia's optimism. The world's second-largest gold miner expects Australia's project output to reach 1.5 million ounces to 17.0 million ounces in 2017, with total spending ranging from 205 million to 240 million U.S. dollars.
The agency predicts that by 2026 Australia's gold output will increase from 10.5 million ounces in 2018 to 13.2 million ounces, an average annual increase of 3.1% and will continue to hold the position of the world's second-largest gold producer.
The agency expects a slight increase in gold output in Russia. Gold production in the United States will gradually increase, mainly driven by rising prices, and the Trump administration's deregulation will encourage project development and loosen environmental requirements.
